Horse Racing Money Back (or Refund) If ‘X’ Offers can be a very profitable type of reload offer in Matched Betting.
‘X’ represents a specific outcome that’s denoted by a bookmaker. For example, X could be ‘Your Horse Finishes 2nd’, or ‘Your Horse Finishes in 2nd, 3rd or 4th’, or ‘This Horse Wins and Your Bet Loses’, or similar.
In this article we’re going to look at two different examples of these types of offers. We’ll also consider two different strategies for each offer – the ‘potential profit strategy’ and the ‘guaranteed, lock-in profit’ strategy.
Then we’ll consider some common questions we get about these offers and point you in the right direction for where you can find out more information and the tools you’ll need to do these offers.
Examples of Matched Betting Horse Racing Refund Offers
Example 1: Free Bet if a Certain Horse Wins and Your Bet Loses
Genting recently ran this type of offer on the 15:00 at Newbury (Saturday 15th August 2020).
No matter what strategy you choose to use with this type of offer the key thing is to NOT do your Qualifying Bet on the horse named in the offer at the bookie.
In this example – we must NOT bet on Morando to win at Genting.
The simplest way to complete this offer is to just do a normal Qualifying Bet on any horse that is not Morando and which gives us a good Qualifying Loss – preferably of £1 or less in this instance. Then just hope Morando wins and we get given a £10 free bet to profit from.
The horse ‘Tritonic’ provided a good option (at the time of writing), with a 74p Qualifying Loss (using Smarkets Betting Exchange with 0% commission).
(What’s an acceptable Qualifying Loss for an offer like this varies based on several factors. Morando in this instance was not the strong favourite to win the race – we estimated the horse only had about a 25% chance of winning in fact. If Morando had been a really strong favourite, we probably would have found a Qualifying Loss of up to £1.50 or even £2 acceptable. Your level of experience with these offers and available bankroll also has an influence).
The alternative way to complete this offer is to use the ‘Refund If’ Calculator and lock-in a profit for yourself regardless if Morando wins the race or not.
Platinum Members are recommended to check the ‘Lock-in Profit Thread’ in the forum mid-late morning on the day of the race to see quickly if there are any decent lock-in options available on specific offers.
Alternatively you can check for possible options throughout the day for yourself.
Here’s an example of the how the Refund If Calculator works:
With this approach as well as doing a normal Qualifying Bet on a horse of our choice (Tritonic in this instance) we also lay the win for the horse mentioned in the offer (Morando in this case) – using the lay stake worked out by the Refund If Calculator.
The bottom of the calculator then shows us how we make a profit regardless if Morando wins the race or not.
You can see in this instance the guaranteed, lock-in profit approach only makes us 82p.
Although it’s completely your choice which strategy to use, most of us in this instance would opt for the potential profit approach as that gives us an opportunity of making £7 or more in profit from our free bet if Morando wins the race.
(Morando actually lost the race and finished 4th – meaning we would have been 74p down in this instance. Tritonic also lost though meaning we kept more of our bankroll in Smarkets at least!)
Example 2: Cash Back (or Free Bet) if Your Horse Comes in a Certain Place (or Places)
This is a very popular offer among the bookies. The place can be just 2nd, or it can be multiple places, such as 2nd and 3rd, or 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The number of places offered is usually dictated by the number of horses running in the race.
Sky Bet frequently run the ‘cash back’ version of this offer.
Here’s a good example from the 14:05 at Newmarket (also on Saturday 15th August 2020).
The simplest way to complete this offer is to just do a normal Qualifying Bet on any horse which gives us a good Qualifying Loss - then just hope our horse finishes in the correct position – 2nd or 3rd in this instance.
Now, there is no sure-fire way of choosing a horse that is ‘more likely’ to come in a certain position. As with extra place offers not choosing a very strong favourite (odds of 1.50 or less) or an extreme outsider will possibly increase your chances though. However, if the Qualifying Losses on such horses are too high you may want to just go with the favourite if its Qualifying Loss is good.
On Saturday, close to the start of the race there was a good opportunity available on the horse Indigo Lake, that gave a Qualifying Loss of just 65p.
(As we discussed in Example 1, what an acceptable Qualifying Loss is to you will vary based on your available bankroll and experience. We would advise to avoid accepting a loss higher than £1.50 to £2.)
The alternative way to complete this offer is to use the ‘Racing Refund’ Calculator and lock-in a profit for yourself regardless if your horse comes in the correct position or not.
Platinum Members are recommended to check the ‘Lock-in Profit Thread’ in the forum mid-late morning on the day of the race to see quickly if there are any decent lock-in options available.
Alternatively you can check for possible options throughout the day for yourself.
Here’s an example of the how the Racing Refund Calculator works:
The first step is to choose the type of refund offer you are doing. In this case we get cash back if our horse finishes in 2nd or 3rd place.
The next step is to input the back and lay odds of the selected horse as you would for any Qualifying Bet. In this example we used the back and lay odds for the horse ‘Boss Power’.
Next we need to input the details about the ‘Bonus’.
Sky Bet are giving us £10 cash back. The bonus amount is therefore 10, and the retention is 100% (we keep all the cash back).
If the offer had been for a £10 free bet, we would have changed the bonus retention amount here to 75 or 80%, as we can only tend to extract £7.50 to £8 profit from any £10 free bet we receive.
Lastly, we need to input the lay odds for our selected horse to place in 3rd in the race (following the number of places the calculator requests).
The Racing Refund Calculator then tells us what lay stake amounts we need to use at the exchange (Smarkets in this instance – as they are giving us 0% commission).
The key thing to note is that we are placing one back bet on the horse to win at the bookmaker (Sky Bet in our example), then two lay bets at the exchange. One lay be against the horse to win, and one lay bet against the horse in the 3 place market.
Once we place these bets we will make a profit of £2.23 no matter if Boss Power finishes in 2nd or 3rd or not.
This is quite a good profit to guarantee and many would choose the lock-in profit option in this case. Others may always just stick to the potential profit option no matter what.
The choice is yours 🙂
(Indigo Lake actually ended up coming in 2nd, which would have made us a nice profit of £9.38 if we'd opted for the potential profit approach here).
Common Questions About Money Back / Refund If Offers
Who are these offers best for?
Compared to Horse Racing Extra Place Offers, these types of offer can easily be tackled by relative beginners to Matched Betting.
We’d advise beginners to only start doing them though once you’ve completed the Welcome Offers and any easy Bet & Get reload offers.
How often do these offers come up?
The best offers tend to be available on weekend horse racing (especially on Saturdays) and during big horse racing festivals, such as Cheltenham, Royal Ascot and Goodwood.
Quite a few bookmakers do run them during the week as well though.
How much can you make from these offers?
Experienced Matched Bettors who have a decent Matched Betting Bankroll can make substantial profits from these offers during festivals especially – as is frequently noted in our Member Matched Betting Monthly Profits posts.
If you have access to these offers (i.e. you’re not gubbed at the relevant bookmakers that run these promotions) we’d recommend doing them as often as you can as they are very good value.
Is there anything to watch out for when doing these offers?
- Make sure you are using the correct calculator for the specific offer! Please ask in the forum or the Facebook Group if you need help;
- Remember to change the Bonus Retention amount depending on if you are getting cash back or a free bet;
- Make sure to use the correct place lay market when doing 2nd,3rd,4th place refund style offers. Again - double check in the forum if you're not sure!
- Offers such as ‘If you horse finishes 2nd to the SP (starting price) favourite are NOT the same as ‘If your horse finishes 2nd’. You can’t lock-in profit on these offers and they are harder to make a potential profit on too. On the horse racing refund daily offers page (available via the Matched Betting Reloads) we list these offers, but last, under the more profitable refund if ‘X’ options. We only recommend doing them if you happen to find a horse with a very small Qualifying Loss.
- Avoid taking the best price horse every time on these offers at a specific bookie as it MAY increase your chances of getting gubbed. We recommend following our tips to avoid getting gubbed where you can as these offers are very valuable over the long-term.
Where can I find more information, tools and resources for Money Back or Refund If offers?
(Look out for this symbol)
Then other useful resources for Platinum Members include:
- Horse Racing Terminology Guide
- Horse Racing Refunds – General Guide
- The Refund If Calculator
- The Refund If Calculator Guide
- The Racing Refund Calculator
- The Racing Refund Calculator Guide on the forum
- The Lock-in Profit Thread on the forum. (Every day we list any good lock-in options available - these are usually available mid-late morning).
- The Lock-in Profit Guide and Questions Thread. Includes useful examples and is a place you can ask for help and guidance with these offers.
Need a helping hand with Matched Betting?
Our Facebook Group, which has over 8000 members, is a great place to ask for help and ask questions, especially if you are new to Matched Betting. Our community forum is also a great place to ask for help and advice.
Alternatively you can also contact us directly for support too.
Interested in Getting Started Matched Betting?
Alternatively, upgrade to our Platinum Membership here. It’s only £19.99 a month and you can easily make this back within an hour or so once you get the hang of things. Talk about value for money!