Part 5 - 'FTAs are like buses...'
This article is part of a series that is following the progress of a Profit Accumulator team member who regularly does the 2up early-payout offer. The team member uses what is referred to as the ‘Full Turn Around’ or ‘FTA’ strategy.
The FTA strategy is considered to be a higher variance strategy compared to the alternative Cash-out strategies - but tends to be quicker to do.
For strategy outlines see: Want more profits from Matched Betting? 2ups are key! and Multiple cash-out strategy walk-through.
In this series we’ll also be keeping track of a few 2up related statistics, such as the total number of FTAs by league, team, back odds and similar. Several members (as well as a few members of the PA team) do consider football statistics, team form and similar in an attempt to help them refine their 2up strategy - but other members and the PA team member this series is following don't really consider them as important at all - instead choosing to focus solely on strict control of Qualifying Losses below a certain amount.
Before we jump in to how our team member has been getting on we'd like to emphasize that the articles in this series are NOT designed to be a guide on how to do the 2up early-payout offer and are only meant to provide an insight into how one of our team prefers to approach the offer.
For guides, tips and absolutely essential reading on how to approach the 2up early-payout offer and the different strategies you can use please refer to the following:
Tips and advice from the members and team - Bet365 2up forum thread
Please remember the 2up early-payout offer is considered a more advanced stage type of Matched Betting reload offer and we don’t tend to recommend it for complete beginners.
The 2021/2022 Football Season - September & October
The last part of this series covered the season up until the 2nd September. This article will cover from the start of the season (6th August) up until the 31st October.
(There's been a bit of a gap in this series due to a combination of holidays / COVID / international breaks - but we hope to get back on track now!)
Nearly 3 months into the football season and we've recorded a total of 61 Full Turn Arounds so far, 7 of which have been in-play only opportunities.
Verona (Italy Serie A) were the team to be on in September and October - providing 3 FTAs out of the 8 games they played over this period. Which is pretty crazy.
For those interested:
- v. Milan their odds were around 6.0 and they were playing away.
- v. Genoa their odds were around 2.75 - again they were away.
- v. Salernitana their odds were around 2.10 - and again they were the away team.
(For those who like stats, EV calculations and a good discussion in regard to 2ups and FTAs this post in the forum from 2019 is an exceptionally good read. Ligue 1 is currently running at a 4.17% chance of an FTA based on there having been 240 potential bets so far and 10 FTAs. The German Bundesliga is currently running at 0.56% after 180 potential bets. It will be interesting to see how these stats change over the course of the season. Is the Bundesliga technically now due a few to balance things out? Or, will they be the dud league of the season?)
Running FTA Statistics for this Season so far
Total FTA opportunities = 61
Total end of game FTAs available = 54
Total inplay only FTAs available = 7
(We've added here the % chance of an FTA by league as well based on the total number of bets that have been available up until the 31st October 2021).
(Only teams with 2 or more FTAs are included)
Blackburn (England, Championship) = 2
Harrogate Town (England, League 2) = 2
Ipswich (England, League 1) = 2
Leicester City (England, Premier League + Europa League) = 2
Lens (France, Ligue 1) = 2
Lyon (France, Ligue 1) = 2
Metz (France, Ligue 1) = 2
Reading (English Championship) = 2
Verona (Italy, Serie A) = 3
By Home Team / Away Team
Home Team = 25
Away Team = 36
By Favourite / Outsider
Favourite = 27
Outsider = 19
Similar Odds (within 0.5 of each other) = 15
By Back Odds Range
(Back odds recorded from the PA team member’s bets are used when available, otherwise, odds from a historical odds data portal are used)
1.99 and less = 9
2.00 to 2.99 = 33
3.00 to 3.99 = 5
4.00 to 4.99 = 4
5.00 to 5.99 = 6
6.00 to 6.99 = 2
7.00 to 8.99 = 0
9.00 and higher = 2
54% of teams this season that have gone on to have an FTA have starting odds ranging between 2.0 and 2.99.
This is definitely one of the most interesting statistics to emerge out of the data so far for this season. Although we can never be certain if this is a trend that is going to continue over the rest of the season - it may be time to consider, if you have the bankroll available, a potential increase in stake size on suitable Qualifying Bets at these odds. Certainly one for discussion anyway!
How did our Profit Accumulator team member get on?
PA Team Members 2up Bet & Profit Log
Total profit since start: +£1020.80
Total bets placed since start: 249 ("this is lower than what it would have been thanks to COVID! Missed an entire week of betting that of course ended up having around 10 FTAs in! I'm sure had I done some bets that week I would have hit at least one. One of those things really!")
Overall average QL: -£2.46
Profit graph since the start of the season:
Average back stake amount: £135
Average back odds: 4.03 (minimum 2.0, maximum 12.0)
Average % odds match between bookie and exchange: 97.79%
Number of end-game FTAs hit overall this season: 4 of 61 available ("As I don't bet on teams with less than odds of 2.0 this is really 4 of 52. Also if I exclude the FTAs that occurred during the week I wasn't able to bet - it actually becomes 4 in 42 available").
Number of in-play FTAs hit overall this season: 0 of 7 available
Number of in-play FTAs missed due to not seeing them: 1 ("What a nightmare on this. I forgot I'd put my phone on silent and completely forgot to have a quick glance at scores. If I'd hit this September would have been around +£131.47 and overall profit then £1152.27").
Comments from the PA Team Member on these last few months
“I'm not going to lie, the downswing in September was tough and the worst I've ever had on 2ups. Then, missing cashing-out on that in-play FTA on Lens (v Marseille) really put the nail in. I was so angry at myself! However, it does go to show that even a big downswing like that - all it takes is ONE hit and boom, you're up and covered.
My conclusion from this last month is that FTAs are just like buses...you can wait for ages and none come, then suddenly 2 come along at once! May November be like October please! 😀
I really hope my journey so far helps anyone starting 2ups to consider the variance that can be involved with this FTA approach. But... I also hope it's becoming clear as to why 2ups are so profitable over the long-term. They are ALL about strictly maintaining tiny losses then waiting for the big profit hits.
If you're not sure you can deal with going well over 100 bets without a hit - please do look at the cash-out approached instead - the variance is a lot more easy to digest for 2up beginners. Nothing is set in stone - you can always switch to the FTA approach later once you have the bankroll and experience at dealing with the variance”.
An insight from the PA Team Member on their 2up strategy
“Don't leave your phone on silent. Ha!
I was interested to see the statistics coming out on FTAs by odds ranges. I'm wondering with an average of 4.03 odds on my bets so far if I really need to start focusing my bankroll more on lower odds games. I've got £1020 extra on my 2up bankroll that I didn't have at the start of August - so I'm going to put that into good use over November that's for sure.
I'm all for re-investing profits into Matched Betting to make even more profits - especially when it comes to 2ups!"
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