Week 2 - 'Welcome to a downswing'
This article is part of a weekly series that is following the progress of a Profit Accumulator team member who regularly does the 2up early-payout offer. The team member uses what is referred to as the ‘Full Turn Around’ or ‘FTA’ strategy.
Full background and details of this are available via the Week 1 article - 'Kick-off time!'
In this week's edition you will see why the 2up early-payout offer is considered a more advanced Matched Betting reload offer as well as insights into the higher level of variance that is involved with the 'FTA' strategy over lower variance strategies such as the Multiple cash-out strategy.
The PA team member is using what are considered larger stakes (£100+) as they have a very good sized bankroll. It is possible to start doing 2ups with much smaller stakes (£10-£50) and we would recommend to use such stakes initially for any members interested in starting to cash in on this or similar advanced reload offers (such as Horse Racing Extra Places).
In this weekly series, we’ll also be keeping track of a few interesting 2up related statistics, such as the total number of FTAs by league, team and back odds.
These articles are not designed to be a guide on how to do the 2up early-payout offer and are only meant to provide an insight into how one of our team prefers to approach the offer.
For guides, tips, and absolutely essential reading on how to approach and profit from the 2up early-payout offer please refer to the following:
Bet365 Early-payout Offer Video Guide
Strategy outline - Want more profits from Matched Betting? 2ups are key!
Strategy outline - Multiple cash-out strategy walk-through
Tips and advice from the members and team - Bet365 2up forum thread
The 2021/2022 Football Season - Week 2
Friday 13th August to Thursday 19th August 2021
This week was really quite good for FTAs as there were 3.
Bolton (vs AFC Wimbledon, English Football League 1, Saturday 14th August)
Marseille (vs Bordeaux, France Ligue 1, Sunday 15th August)
Peterborough (vs Cardiff, English Championship, Tuesday 17th August)
There were no in-play FTAs that we saw in the results this week (but please do correct us if we missed one!)
Marseille were a strong favourite with odds around 1.50 to win the game. With such low odds, the FTA payout wouldn’t have been very substantial unless a very large stake amount was used.
Using large stakes on teams with lows odds is an approach used by some Profit Accumulator members for the 2up early-payout offer. The general advice from most members tends to be to focus on teams with odds of 2.0 or higher - as our PA team member featured in this article also chooses to do.
Despite the 3 FTAs this week, from a quick analysis of the game results it seems there were also some very good and more frequent opportunities for those using a cash-out strategy. (Basically, if you'd been using the cash-out strategy over the FTA strategy during this 2nd week you wouldn't have likely had to deal with the level or variance our PA team member had to).
Running FTA Statistics for this Season so far
Total FTA opportunities = 9
Total end of game FTAs available = 8
Total inplay FTAs available = 1
Ligue 1 (France) = 3
EFL Cup (England) = 3
Championship (England) = 1
League 1 (England) = 1
League 2 (England) = 1
(Teams with 2 or more FTAs will be included here. As yet all teams have only had 1)
By Home Team / Away Team
Home Team = 5
Away Team = 4
By Favourite / Outsider
Favourite = 3
Outsider = 2
Similar Odds (within 0.5 of each other) = 4
By Back Odds Range
(Back odds recorded from the PA team member’s bets are used when available, otherwise, odds from a historical odds data portal are used)
1.99 and less = 1
2.00 to 2.99 = 6
3.00 to 3.99 = 1
4.00 to 4.99 = 0
5.00 to 5.99 = 1
6.00 to 6.99 = 0
7.00 to 8.99 = 0
9.00 and higher 0
How did our Profit Accumulator team member get on?
PA Team Members 2up Bet & Profit Log
Total profit this week: -£92.23 ("this was one of those very frustrating weeks!")
Total profit since start: £115.02 (“still up, still got a good buffer going into next week”)
Bets placed this week: 38 (“almost double what I did last week now footy back in earnest”)
Total bets placed since start: 57
Total qualifying losses (before any profits) this week: -£92.93 (average QL = -£2.43)
Overall average QL: -£2.33
Profit graph this week:
Profit graph since the start of the season:
Average back stake amount this week: £134
Average back stake amount overall: £128
Average back odds this week: 3.52 (minimum 2.0, maximum 6.0)
Average back odds overall: 3.73 (minimum 2.0, maximum 9.0)
Average % odds match between bookie and exchange this week: 97.78%
Average % odds match between bookie and exchange overall: 97.71%
Number of end-game FTAs hit: 0, zilch, nothing! (of 2 available as I don’t count the Marseille game as my strategy doesn’t involve betting on teams with odds under 2.00).
Number of in-play FTAs hit: 0
Number of in-play FTAs missed due to not seeing them: 0 (that would have been a seriously frustrating week if there had been an in-play one that I'd missed as well. Fortunately there wasn't!)
Comments from the PA Team Member on this week
"One of those weeks! Really quite frustrating - but I'm always prepared for the downswings and it's part and parcel with the strategy I use.
Missed the boat completely on the Peterborough and Bolton FTAs - it happens! I saw AFC Wimbledon come up (vs Bolton) on the Oddsmatcher briefly but missed it - quite glad of that now as personally feel like it’s slightly better when you’re not on either team rather than being on the wrong team of an FTA match. That’s beyond annoying when that happens.
I was quite frustrated by the Watford vs Aston Villa game where Watford went 3up only for Aston Villa to get 2 but not the full 3! That would have been a good return for me (over £300!) if Aston Villa had managed the comeback. It reminds me though that all you need is one to come in every now and again and you’re very much in profit. 2 or more come in and you’re seriously up.
Thankfully I wasn’t on West Brom too as they basically did what Watford did but vs Luton.
Other than that the other major letdown of the week was that Brentford went 2up and then Arsenal then didn’t show up. I know the 2up was late in the game but still.
French Ligue 1 is looking interesting - in the first week, Marseille went 2-0 down to Montpellier and then got 2 back (they were playing away that week). This week they went 2-0 up then allowed Bordeaux to get 2 back (they were playing at home this last week). Will be a team to keep an eye on if they keep scoring AND letting in goals like they are (as that’s what we need after all!)"
An insight from the PA Team Member on their 2up strategy
“Some Profit Accumulator members (and some of the PA team too) have suggested they do like to consider statistics and team form to help refine their 2up strategies. Personally, I don’t consider either very much - well, at the moment anyway - I could always change my mind in the future. For now, I’ll keep sticking to my basic rule of getting on every team I can with a good oddsmatch and small qualifying loss. It worked really well last season and I expect it to work as well again this season. I know the downswings will come - I expect them now and have developed a good mindset for them. As the members all like to say in the forum - 'we move!'.
It will be interesting to see by the end of this season 'stats wise' if there are any stand-out leagues, odds ranges or teams in regard to FTAs.
Looking back on last season I think it was Parma - an Italy Serie A team for those not into football - who were involved in about 7 FTAs. I think they were the team that went 2up first in in most of the games, but still, a single team involved in 7 FTA games is quite crazy!
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