Week 3 - 'Hello Serie A!'
This article is part of a weekly series that is following the progress of a Profit Accumulator team member who regularly does the 2up early-payout offer. The team member uses what is referred to as the ‘Full Turn Around’ or ‘FTA’ strategy.
We’ll also be keeping track of a few 2up related statistics, such as the total number of FTAs by league, team, back odds and similar.
These articles are not designed to be a guide on how to do the 2up early-payout offer and are only meant to provide an insight into how one of our team prefers to approach the offer.
For guides, tips and absolutely essential reading on how to approach the 2up early-payout offer and the different strategies you can use please refer to the following:
Strategy outline - Want more profits from Matched Betting? 2ups are key!
Strategy outline - Multiple cash-out strategy walk-through
Tips and advice from the members and team - Bet365 2up forum thread
Please remember the 2up early-payout offer is considered a more advanced stage type of Matched Betting reload offer and we don’t tend to recommend it for complete beginners.
There’s absolutely no harm in you starting to learn about how to do the offer and following key forum threads to understand the strategies involved though! With the learning done you’ll then be in an excellent position to start this offer once you’ve built up a decent bankroll and mastered the easier and lower variance offers - Price Boosts, Horse Racing Refunds and Same Game Multi Bets.
Sean a pro-member "Matched Betting is a marathon - not a sprint!"
The 2021/2022 Football Season - Week 3
Friday 20th August to Thursday 26th August 2021 (inclusive)
Italy Serie A - the league our 2up fanatics had all been waiting for - finally kicked off their season on Saturday 21st August and they did not let us down - producing 2 end of game FTAs. (Will the relegation of super Italian FTA team Parma to Serie B this season have any influence long-term on this season though? Hopefully not! Only time will tell).
The German Bundesliga - considered another infamous league for 2ups - also joined the board with an in-play FTA.
These were all on top of another 3 FTAs - which brought this week’s total available FTAs to 6!
Barnsley (vs QPR, English Championship, Saturday 21st August)
AFC Bournemouth (vs Blackpool, English Championship, Saturday 21st August)
Juventus (vs Udinese, Italy Serie A, Sunday 22nd August)
Lyon (vs Clemont Foot, France Ligue 1, Sunday 22nd August)
Spezia (vs Cagliari, Italy Serie A, Monday 23rd August)
In-play only FTAs
Bayern Munich (vs Koln, German Bundesliga, Sunday 22nd August)
Despite there being 6 FTAs this week some members who strictly use odds over 2.0 would argue there were really only 3. Bayern Munich, Juventus and AFC Bournemouth all had odds around 1.50 to 1.70 - so only those members choosing to use a slightly different strategy of high stakes on low odds could have hit those FTAs.
Running FTA Statistics for this Season so far
Total FTA opportunities = 15
Total end of game FTAs available = 13
Total inplay FTAs available = 2
Ligue 1 (France) = 4
EFL Cup (England) = 3
Championship (England) = 3
Serie A (Italy) = 2
League 1 (England) = 1
League 2 (England) = 1
Bundesliga (Germany) = 1
(Teams with 2 or more FTAs will be included here. As yet all teams have only had 1)
By Home Team / Away Team
Home Team = 8
Away Team = 7
By Favourite / Outsider
Favourite = 7
Outsider = 4
Similar Odds (within 0.5 of each other) = 4
By Back Odds Range
(Back odds recorded from the PA team member’s bets are used when available, otherwise, odds from a historical odds data portal are used)
1.99 and less = 5
2.00 to 2.99 = 6
3.00 to 3.99 = 2
4.00 to 4.99 = 1
5.00 to 5.99 = 1
6.00 to 6.99 = 0
7.00 to 8.99 = 0
9.00 and higher 0
How did our Profit Accumulator team member get on?
PA Team Members 2up Bet & Profit Log
Total profit this week:+£372.80 (“Boom Spezia!”)
Total profit since start: +£487.82 (“top start to the first 3 weeks of the season”)
Bets placed this week: 27
Total bets placed since start: 84
Total qualifying losses (before any profits) this week: -£67.20 (average QL = -£2.49)
Overall average QL: -£2.38
Profit graph this week:
Profit graph since the start of the season:
Average back stake amount this week: £130
Average back stake amount overall: £130
Average back odds this week: 4.24
Average back odds overall: 3.88 (minimum 2.0, maximum 10.0)
Average % odds match between bookie and exchange this week: 97.69%
Average % odds match between bookie and exchange overall: 97.72%
Number of end-game FTAs hit: 1 (of 3 as I don’t count the ones where the teams had odds under 2.0 - well, in my head anyway - other members might!).
Number of in-play FTAs hit: 0
Number of in-play FTAs missed due to not seeing them: 0 (thankfully!)
Comments from the PA Team Member on this week
“Endured all of Saturday and Sunday (21st and 22nd August) without a hit. You can’t help think at this point - how long is this downswing (that technically started on Tuesday 10th August) going to be? My record last year was something like 108 bets without a hit. That was a LONG wait that one. Was this one going to be the same? Or worse?!
By midnight on Sunday it meant I’d gone 62 bets without a hit (which was stacking up my QL’s to the tune of -£153.69). This level of variance is what makes using the FTA strategy with the 2up offer quite hard, as even though I absolutely know the strategy works (as long as you maintain strict qualifying losses like I do and follow PA’s guides and advice), it doesn’t make the downswings any easier to sit through.
Then on Monday night the FTA came! Really nice boom as Spezia’s odds were just over 4 and I got quite a decent stake on too.
This FTA put my total profit to £487.82.
If I maintain my average QL per bet, at let’s say a max of £2.50 (remember my average stage amounts are over £100 - so that loss on average is less than 3% of my stake), that means I have to place 195 Qualifying Bets without hitting again before I’m at 0 profit. That’s a pretty significant buffer I have now and we are only in week 3 of the season.”
An insight from the PA Team Member on their 2up strategy
“If I’d jumped into 2ups when I was just starting Matched Betting in all honestly I probably would have given up on them - especially if I’d started with a downswing. I didn’t really understand value, +EV or how potential profit offers really worked and was very much into the instant profits you make with your bet and get offers and your price boosts.
You need to slowly build up the right mindset for profiting from 2ups and similar offers.
Start with the simpler horse racing refunds - such as your Sky Bet Money Back as Cash and your Coral BBLs and build up from there. At the same time focus on building up your bankroll - you’ll also need that for 2ups and EPs.”
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