Matched Betting the 2up Early-payout Offer: 2021/2022 Football Season Bet & Profit Log - Week 4

Week 4 - 'Waiting on La Liga'

Introduction

This article is part of a weekly series that is following the progress of a Profit Accumulator team member who regularly does the 2up early-payout offer. The team member uses what is referred to as the ‘Full Turn Around’ or ‘FTA’ strategy.

We’ll also be keeping track of a few 2up related statistics, such as the total number of FTAs by league, team, back odds and similar.

Full background and details: Week 1 - Kick-off time!
Previous week’s article: Week 3 - Hello Serie A!

These articles are not designed to be a guide on how to do the 2up early-payout offer and are only meant to provide an insight into how one of our team prefers to approach the offer.

For guides, tips and absolutely essential reading on how to approach the 2up early-payout offer and the different strategies you can use please refer to the following:

Bet365 Early-payout Offer Video Guide

Early Payout Calculator Guide

Strategy outline - Want more profits from Matched Betting? 2ups are key!

Strategy outline - Multiple cash-out strategy walk-through

Tips and advice from the members and team - Bet365 2up forum thread

Please remember the 2up early-payout offer is considered a more advanced stage type of Matched Betting reload offer and we don’t tend to recommend it for complete beginners.

The 2021/2022 Football Season - Week 4

Friday 27th August to Thursday 2nd September 2021 (inclusive)

Overview

Another week gone and still not a single FTA from Spain’s La Liga. The question we’re all asking ourselves now is are the FTAs from them all suddenly going to come thick and fast? Or will they be the complete dud league of the season?

They already have quite a bit of catching up to do to France’s Ligue 1 - who yes, are a week ahead in number of games played - but regardless of that have pulled out a whopping 5 FTAs already. 2 - yes 2! - of which have been thanks to one team - Metz.

Will Metz be the team to be on this year? Or will it all fizzle out for them and Ligue 1?

(For those who like stats, EV calculations and a good discussion in regard to 2ups and FTAs this post in the forum from 2019 is an exceptionally good read. Ligue 1 is currently running at a 6.25% chance of an FTA based on there having been 80 potential bets so far and 5 FTAs. La Liga are currently on 0%. It will be interesting to see how these stats change over the course of the season.)

The FTAs

Ipswich (vs AFC Bournemouth, English League 1, Saturday 28th August)

Metz (vs Clemont Foot, France Ligue 1, Sunday 29th August)

In-play only FTAs

None!

Freiburg (vs Stuttgart) in the German Bundesliga on Saturday 28th August - provided an extremely good cash-out opportunity (if that’s your preferred strategy for 2ups). Especially as their starting odds were over 3.0.

They went 2-0 in 9 minutes, then 3-0 up at 28 minutes, then by half-time the game was back to a 3-2 scoreline! Very nearly an in-play FTA - at least that’s what we were all hoping for - but there were then no goals in the 2nd half can the game ended 3-2 to Freiburg.

Running FTA Statistics for this Season so far

Total FTA opportunities = 17
Total end of game FTAs available = 15
Total inplay only FTAs available = 2

By League

Ligue 1 (France) = 5
EFL Cup (England) = 3
Championship (England) = 3
Serie A (Italy) = 2
League 1 (England) = 2
League 2 (England) = 1
Bundesliga (Germany) = 1

By Team

(Only teams with 2 or more FTAs are included)

Metz (France, Ligue 1) = 2

By Home Team / Away Team

Home Team = 9
Away Team = 8

By Favourite / Outsider

Favourite = 8
Outsider = 5
Similar Odds (within 0.5 of each other) = 4

By Back Odds Range

(Back odds recorded from the PA team member’s bets are used when available, otherwise, odds from a historical odds data portal are used)

1.99 and less = 6
2.00 to 2.99 = 6
3.00 to 3.99 = 2
4.00 to 4.99 = 1
5.00 to 5.99 = 2
6.00 to 6.99 = 0
7.00 to 8.99 = 0
9.00 and higher 0

How did our Profit Accumulator team member get on?

PA Team Members 2up Bet & Profit Log

Total profit this week:-£56.53
Total profit since start: +£431.29

Bets placed this week: 22
Total bets placed since start: 106

Total qualifying losses (before any profits) this week: -£56.53 (average QL = -£2.57)
Overall average QL: -£2.42

Profit graph this week:

Profit graph since the start of the season:

Average back stake amount this week: £112
Average back stake amount overall: £125

Average back odds this week: 4.66
Average back odds overall: 4.04 (minimum 2.0, maximum 12.0)

Average % odds match between bookie and exchange this week: 97.57%
Average % odds match between bookie and exchange overall: 97.69%

Number of end-game FTAs hit this week: 0
Number of end-game FTAs hit overall this season: 2 of 15 available

Number of in-play FTAs hit this week: 0
Number of in-play FTAs hit overall this season: 0 of 2 available

Number of in-play FTAs missed due to not seeing them this week: 0

Comments from the PA Team Member on this week

“No hit this week but not a big deal as I’m over £400 in profit and therefore in an excellent position for getting back into 2ups after the internationals.

My average QL is creeping up a bit so I’ll start to keep an eye on that...but an average QL of £2.42 is running under 2% of my average stake amount of £125 so that’s very good still”.

An insight from the PA Team Member on their 2up strategy

“Our member ‘MrBond’ did a really top post about commonly asked 2up questions.

That’s available here and is WELL worth a read if you haven’t already seen it.

His answers do highlight though how we can all differ slightly in our approaches.

For example - they use minimum odds of 1.8 while my personal minimum is 2.0.

They also tend to place bets a maximum of 24 hours before - I will go up to 48 hours before - every now and again a bit more if I see a top oddsmatch come up.

I don’t really worry about the number of bets I place per week (or per day) - will it get me gubbed quicker? I don’t know. At the end of the day if you’re placing 4-5 bets with 97% oddsmatches vs 10 bets with 97% oddsmatches week in week out - both suggests to the bookie you’re Matched Betting.

I definitely agree that if a team goes FTA IN-PLAY and you see that it has - CASH-OUT IMMEDIATELY. (As you know I’m not always watching the games or can’t watch the games, so I will sometimes miss these opportunities - I accept that. If I do see them though I will CASH-OUT. I think this is the one rule every single experienced member will agree on.

Anyway - definitely have a read of 'MrBonds' info and all the discussion below. Loads of takeaways from it. Loads.”

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